Moon phase


Norbert Wiener


The Da Vinci Code

Holy Blood, Holy Grail

The Solomon Key



The first email

Concerned Scientists write to Bush

Economics Nobel 2003

Chemistry Nobel 2003

Medicine Nobel 2003
Literature Nobel 2003

Physics Nobel 2003

Life on Mars ?
Rosalind Franklin and the Discovery of Double Helix

Good Bye Dolly
On Stonehenge
The Loss of Columbia
IG Nobel 2002
The invention of :-)
West Nile Virus
Asteroid Impact?
Molecule Hunt
Tuxedo Park
Ancient Trade Routes
Pop Singer to Fly In Space
Great Ideas

Computational Genomics



The Universe in a Nutshell
Copenhagen, the Play
Count of Monte Cristo
Nobel Prize 2001
John Nash
Kernel Methods

Ig-Nobel Prize
Einstein's Brain
Space Turism
Floating City
Mir's Blast
Great Books
Nobel Prize
In the mind of:
Serial Killers
The secret shuttle
Are we aliens?
Studying ET
Pattern Analysis
Early Vibrators
and Hysteria
among us
Book: Darwin
Book: Russell

Mathematical Mountaintops
by John L. Casti


Asteroid 2002 NT7: 'Low-Probability' of Impact in 2019

NASA. Asteroid 2002 NT7 currently heads the list on our IMPACT RISKS Page because of a low-probability Earth impact prediction for February 1, 2019. While this prediction is of scientific interest, the probability of impact is not large enough to warrant public concern.

Discovered on July 9, 2002 by the LINEAR team, asteroid 2002 NT7 is in an orbit, which is highly inclined with respect to the Earth's orbit about the sun and in fact nearly intersects the orbit of the Earth. While the orbits of Earth and 2002 NT7 are close to one another at one point in their respective orbits, that does not mean that the asteroid and Earth themselves will get close to one another. Just after an asteroid like 2002 NT7 is discovered, the limited number of observations available do not allow its trajectory to be tightly constrained and the object's very uncertain future motion often allows a very low probability of an Earth impact at some future date. Just such a low probability impact has been identified for February 1, 2019 and a few subsequent dates. As additional observations of the asteroid are made in the coming months, and perhaps pre-discovery archival observations of this object are identified, the asteroid's orbit will become more tightly constrained and the future motion of the asteroid will become better defined. By far the most likely scenario is that, with additional data, the possibility of an Earth impact will be eliminated.

This is an example of the type of scenario that we can expect as some types of near-Earth objects are discovered. For some objects, their uncertain initial orbits cannot be used to immediately rule out future very low-probability Earth impacts, but when additional observations are used to refine the initial orbit, these low-probability Earth impact possibilities will go away. Other recently discovered near-Earth asteroids will be added to the Risk page until their orbits are refined and they are then dropped off the list of closely watched objects. This is how the system is expected to work and any initial indication of a low-probability Earth impact followed by a removal of that event
from our IMPACT RISKS tables should not be considered a mistake. It is a natural result of the on-going process of monitoring the motions of near-Earth objects.

A New Kind of Science
by Stephen Wolfram

Physics and computer science genius Stephen Wolfram, whose Mathematica computer language launched a multimillion-dollar company, now sets his sights on a more daunting goal--understanding the universe. Wolfram lets the world see his work in A New Kind of Science, a gorgeous, 1,280-page tome more...
Read more



Va Pensiero - Copyright 2004- In association with

Quotable Quote

Random Link

History of Technology

Is this Monument Telling the Truth ?

This monument in downtown Boston is at odds with a recent Congress resolution, granting to Antonio Meucci - not Alexander Bell - moral rights for the invention of the telephone .... more


The Illustrated Brief History of Time, Updated and Expanded Edition
by Stephen W. Hawking


Improbable Research

The 2005 IG Nobel Prizes were awarded in a ceremony at Harvard University.




... read more